Success Isn’t Just Hard Work. It’s a Game of Three Factors.

We love the idea that hard work guarantees success. It’s fair. It’s comforting. It gives us control.

But success is rarely a straight line. It’s a messy mix of skill, luck, and inside information—three factors that, together, separate those who make it from those who don’t.

Let’s break it down.

1. Skill: The Ticket to Play

Skill is what gets you in the game. It’s your expertise, judgment, and ability to execute better than others. Without it, even the best opportunities slip through your fingers.

But skill alone isn’t enough. There are plenty of skilled people stuck in mediocrity because they never caught the right break.

Ex. A brilliant chef in a small town might never build a global restaurant empire. Not because they lack skill, but because they lack…

2. Luck: The Silent Force No One Likes to Admit

Right time, right place. A chance meeting. A competitor failing at the right moment.

Studies like Talent vs. Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure prove that many of the world’s most successful people weren’t the best, just the luckiest among the skilled.

Luck isn’t controllable, but exposure to luck is. The more risks you take, the more people you meet, the more projects you start—the higher your odds of getting lucky.

Think of a band like The Beatles. Insanely talented, yes. But without being discovered at a club in Hamburg, would they have made it?

3. Inside Information: The Edge No One Talks About

Inside information isn’t just stock tips or corporate leaks. It’s early knowledge—an emerging trend, a deep market insight, a key connection before others see the value.

Many people receive valuable information. Few know how to act on it.

Think of early Bitcoin adopters. Some shrugged it off in 2010. Others recognized the potential and went all in.

Read more about how the powerful use leverage to drive asymmetric outcomes here.

How to Play the Game Right

Master Your Skill: Become so good they can’t ignore you.
Expose Yourself to Luck: Take more shots, meet more people, start more things.
Hunt for Inside Information: Stay ahead of trends, build better networks, listen where others don’t.

Success isn’t linear. It’s about stacking probabilities in your favor.

Now—are you stacking yours the right way?